 Financial Terms Value-at-Risk model (VAR)

# Definition of Value-at-Risk model (VAR) ## Value-at-Risk model (VAR)

Procedure for estimating the probability of portfolio losses exceeding some
specified proportion based on a statistical analysis of historical market price trends, correlations, and volatilities.

# Related Terms:

## Account Value

The sum of all the interest options in your policy, including interest.

## Accumulated Value

An amount of money invested plus the interest earned on that money.

The net present value analysis of an asset if financed solely by equity
(present value of un-levered cash flows), plus the present value of any financing decisions (levered cash
flows). In other words, the various tax shields provided by the deductibility of interest and the benefits of
other investment tax credits are calculated separately. This analysis is often used for highly leveraged
transactions such as a leverage buy-out.

## approximated net realizable value at split-off allocation

a method of allocating joint cost to joint products using a
simulated net realizable value at the split-off point; approximated
value is computed as final sales price minus
incremental separate costs

## Arbitrage-free option-pricing models

Yield curve option-pricing models.

## Asset pricing model

A model for determining the required rate of return on an asset.

## Asset pricing model

A model, such as the Capital Asset Pricing model (CAPM), that determines the required
rate of return on a particular asset. ## Asset-specific Risk

The amount of total risk that can be eliminated by diversification by
creating a portfolio. Also known as company-specific risk or
unsystematic risk.

## Bankruptcy risk

The risk that a firm will be unable to meet its debt obligations. Also referred to as default or insolvency risk.

## Basis risk

The uncertainty about the basis at the time a hedge may be lifted. Hedging substitutes basis risk for
price risk.

## Benefit Value

The amount of cash payable on a benefit.

## Beta risk

risk of a firm measured from the standpoint of an investor who holds a highly diversified portfolio.

## Binomial model

A method of pricing options or other equity derivatives in
which the probability over time of each possible price follows a binomial
distribution. The basic assumption is that prices can move to only two values
(one higher and one lower) over any short time period.

## Binomial option pricing model

An option pricing model in which the underlying asset can take on only two
possible, discrete values in the next time period for each value that it can take on in the preceding time period.

## Black-Scholes model

The first complete mathematical model for pricing
options, developed by Fischer Black and Myron Scholes. It examines market
price, strike price, volatility, time to expiration, and interest rates. It is limited
to only certain kinds of options.

## Black-Scholes option-pricing model

A model for pricing call options based on arbitrage arguments that uses
the stock price, the exercise price, the risk-free interest rate, the time to expiration, and the standard deviation
of the stock return. ## Bond value

With respect to convertible bonds, the value the security would have if it were not convertible
apart from the conversion option.

## Book value

A company's book value is its total assets minus intangible assets and liabilities, such as debt. A
company's book value might be more or less than its market value.

## BOOK VALUE

An asset’s cost basis minus accumulated depreciation.

## Book Value

The value of an asset as carried on the balance sheet of a
company. In reference to the value of a company, it is the net worth
(equity) of the company.

## Book value

An asset’s original cost, less any depreciation that has been subsequently incurred.

## book value

Net worth of the firm’s assets or liabilities according
to the balance sheet.

## book value and book value per share

Generally speaking, these terms
refer to the balance sheet value of an asset (or less often of a liability) or
the balance sheet value of owners’ equity per share. Either term emphasizes
that the amount recorded in the accounts or on the books of a business
is the value being used. The total of the amounts reported for
owners’ equity in its balance sheet is divided by the number of stock
shares of a corporation to determine the book value per share of its capital
stock.

## BOOK VALUE OF COMMON STOCK

The theoretical amount per share that each stockholder would receive if a company’s assets were sold on the balance sheet’s date. Book value equals:
(Stockholders’ equity) / (Common stock shares outstanding)

## Book value per share

The ratio of stockholder equity to the average number of common shares. Book value
per share should not be thought of as an indicator of economic worth, since it reflects accounting valuation
(and not necessarily market valuation).

## Book Value per Share

The book value of a company divided by the number of shares
outstanding

## budget variance

the difference between total actual overhead
and budgeted overhead based on standard hours allowed
for the production achieved during the period; computed
as part of two-variance overhead analysis; also
referred to as the controllable variance The risk that the cash flow of an issuer will be impaired because of adverse economic
conditions, making it difficult for the issuer to meet its operating expenses.

an activity that is necessary for the operation of the business but for which a customer would not want to pay

## Call risk

The combination of cash flow uncertainty and reinvestment risk introduced by a call provision.

## Capital asset pricing model (CAPM)

An economic theory that describes the relationship between risk and
expected return, and serves as a model for the pricing of risky securities. The CAPM asserts that the only risk
that is priced by rational investors is systematic risk, because that risk cannot be eliminated by diversification.
The CAPM says that the expected return of a security or a portfolio is equal to the rate on a risk-free security

## Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)

A model for estimating equilibrium rates of return and values of
assets in financial markets; uses beta as a measure of asset risk
relative to market risk

## capital asset pricing model (CAPM)

Theory of the relationship between risk and return which states that the expected risk
premium on any security equals its beta times the market risk premium.

## CAPITAL IN EXCESS OF PAR VALUE

What a company collected when it sold stock for more than the par value per share.

Book value.

## Cash-surrender value

An amount the insurance company will pay if the policyholder ends a whole life
insurance policy.

## Cash Surrender Value

This is the amount available to the owner of a life insurance policy upon voluntary termination of the policy before it becomes payable by the death of the life insured. This does not apply to term insurance but only to those policies which have reduced paid up values and cash surrender values. A cash surrender in lieu of death benefit usually has tax implications.

## Cash Surrender Value

Benefit that entitles a policy owner to an amount of money upon cancellation of a policy.

A method of investment appraisal that calculates the ratio of the net present value of an
investment to the initial capital investment.

## coefficient of variation

a measure of risk used when the standard deviations for multiple projects are approximately
the same but the expected values are significantly different

## Commercial risk

The risk that a foreign debtor will be unable to pay its debts because of business events,
such as bankruptcy.

## Company-specific risk

Related: Unsystematic risk

## Companyspecific Risk

See asset-specific risk

## Completion risk

The risk that a project will not be brought into operation successfully.

## constant-growth dividend discount model

Version of the dividend discount model in which dividends grow at a constant rate.

## Constant-growth model

Also called the Gordon-Shapiro model, an application of the dividend discount
model which assumes (1) a fixed growth rate for future dividends and (2) a single discount rate.

## Continuous random variable

A random value that can take any fractional value within specified ranges, as
contrasted with a discrete variable.

## controllable variance

the budget variance of the two variance approach to analyzing overhead variances

## Conversion value

Also called parity value, the value of a convertible security if it is converted immediately.

## Counterparty risk

The risk that the other party to an agreement will default. In an options contract, the risk
to the option buyer that the option writer will not buy or sell the underlying as agreed.
Country economic risk Developments in a national economy that can affect the outcome of an international
financial transaction.

## Country financial risk

The ability of the national economy to generate enough foreign exchange to meet
payments of interest and principal on its foreign debt.

## Country risk General

Level of political and economic uncertainty in a country affecting the value of loans or
investments in that country.

## Covariance

A statistical measure of the degree to which random variables move together.

## Covariance

A measure of the degree to which returns on two assets move in
tandem. A positive covariance means that asset returns move together; a
negative covariance means they vary inversely.

## Credit risk

The risk that an issuer of debt securities or a borrower may default on his obligations, or that the
payment may not be made on a negotiable instrument. Related: Default risk

## Credit Risk

Financial and moral risk that an obligation will not be paid and a loss will result.

## Cross-border risk

Refers to the volatility of returns on international investments caused by events associated
with a particular country as opposed to events associated solely with a particular economic or financial agent.

## Currency risk

Related: Exchange rate risk

## Currency risk sharing

An agreement by the parties to a transaction to share the currency risk associated with
the transaction. The arrangement involves a customized hedge contract embedded in the underlying
transaction.

## decision variable

an unknown item for which a linear programming
problem is being solved

## Default risk

Also referred to as credit risk (as gauged by commercial rating companies), the risk that an
issuer of a bond may be unable to make timely principal and interest payments.

## dependent variable

an unknown variable that is to be predicted
using one or more independent variables

## Deterministic models

Liability-matching models that assume that the liability payments and the asset cash
flows are known with certainty. Related: Compare stochastic models

## Direct materials mix variance

The variance between the budgeted and actual mixes of
direct materials costs, both using the actual total quantity used. This variance isolates
the unit cost of each item, excluding all other variables.

## Discounted dividend model (DDM)

A formula to estimate the intrinsic value of a firm by figuring the
present value of all expected future dividends.

## Discrete random variable

A random variable that can take only a certain specified set of discrete possible
values - for example, the positive integers 1, 2, 3, . . .

## Diversifiable risk

Related: unsystematic risk.

## dividend discount model

Computation of today’s stock price which states that share value equals the present value of all expected future dividends.

## Dividend discount model (DDM)

A model for valuing the common stock of a company, based on the
present value of the expected cash flows.

## Dividend growth model

A model wherein dividends are assumed to be at a constant rate in perpetuity.

## economic components model

Abrams’ model for calculating DLOM based on the interaction of discounts from four economic components.
This model consists of four components: the measure of the economic impact of the delay-to-sale, monopsony power to buyers, and incremental transactions costs to both buyers and sellers.

## Economic risk

In project financing, the risk that the project's output will not be salable at a price that will
cover the project's operating and maintenance costs and its debt service requirements.

Operating profit, adjusted to remove distortions caused by certain accounting rules, less a charge
to cover the cost of capital invested in the business.

a measure of the extent to which income exceeds the dollar cost of capital; calculated
as income minus (invested capital times the cost of capital percentage)

Term used by the consulting firm Stern Stewart for profit remaining after deduction of the cost
of the capital employed.

## Endogenous variable

A value determined within the context of a model.

## Equilibrium market price of risk

The slope of the capital market line (CML). Since the CML represents the
return offered to compensate for a perceived level of risk, each point on the line is a balanced market
condition, or equilibrium. The slope of the line determines the additional return needed to compensate for a
unit change in risk.

## Event risk

The risk that the ability of an issuer to make interest and principal payments will change because
of rare, discontinuous, and very large, unanticipated changes in the market environment such as (1) a natural
or industrial accident or some regulatory change or (2) a takeover or corporate restructuring.

## Exchange rate risk

Also called currency risk, the risk of an investment's value changing because of currency
exchange rates.

## Exchange risk

The variability of a firm's value that results from unexpected exchange rate changes or the
extent to which the present value of a firm is expected to change as a result of a given currency's appreciation
or depreciation.

## Exercise value

The amount of advantage over a current market transaction provided by an in-the-money
option.

## Exit value

The value that an asset is expected to have at the time it is sold at a predetermined
point in the future.

## Exogenous variable

A variable whose value is determined outside the model in which it is used. Also called
a parameter.

## Expected value

The weighted average of a probability distribution.

## Expected Value

The value of the possible outcomes of a variable weighted by the
probabilities of each outcome

## Expected value of perfect information

The expected value if the future uncertain outcomes could be known
minus the expected value with no additional information.

## Extraordinary positive value

A positive net present value.

## Extrapolative statistical models

models that apply a formula to historical data and project results for a
future period. Such models include the simple linear trend model, the simple exponential model, and the
simple autoregressive model.

See: Par value.

## Face Value

The nominal value of a security. Also called the par value.

## Face value

The maturity value of a security. Also known as par value,
principal value, or redemption value.

## face value

Payment at the maturity of the bond. Also called par value or maturity value.

## Face Value

The payoff value of a bond upon maturity. Also called par value. See principal.

## Face Value

The nominal value which appears on the face of a document recording an entitlement, generally an amount of money that has to be repaid on the maturity of a debt instrument.

## Factor model

A way of decomposing the factors that influence a security's rate of return into common and
firm-specific influences.

## Fair market value

The price that an asset or service will fetch on the open market.

## Fair Market Value

The highest price available, expressed in terms of cash, in an open and unrestricted market between informed, prudent parties acting at arm's length and under no compulsion to transact.

## Fair Value

The amount at which an asset could be purchased or sold or a liability incurred or
settled in a current transaction between willing and informed parties. When a quoted market price
is available, fair value is the product of the number of units in question times that market price.
That product also is referred to as the item's market value. For traded securities, the terms fair
value and market value are synonymous. When no quoted market price is available for the item
in question, fair value must be estimated.

## Fallout risk

A type of mortgage pipeline risk that is generally created when the terms of the loan to be
originated are set at the same time as the sale terms are set. The risk is that either of the two parties, borrower
or investor, fails to close and the loan "falls out" of the pipeline.