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Unbiased predictor

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Definition of Unbiased predictor

Unbiased Predictor Image 1

Unbiased predictor

A theory that spot prices at some future date will be equal to today's forward rates.



Related Terms:

International Fisher effect

States that the interest rate differential between two countries should be an
unbiased predictor of the future change in the spot rate.


predictor

an activity measure that, when changed, is accompanied
by consistent, observable changes in another item


Antidilutive effect

Result of a transaction that increases earnings per common share (e.g. by decreasing the
number of shares outstanding).


Bank for International Settlements (BIS)

An international bank headquartered in Basel, Switzerland, which
serves as a forum for monetary cooperation among several European central banks, the Bank of Japan, and the
U.S. Federal Reserve System. Founded in 1930 to handle the German payment of World War I reparations, it
now monitors and collects data on international banking activity and promulgates rules concerning
international bank regulation.


Blue Ribbon Committee on Improving the Effectiveness of Corporate Audit Committees

A committee formed in response to SEC chairman Arthur Levitt's initiative to improve the financial
reporting environment in the United States. In a report dated February 1999, the committee
made recommendations for new rules for regulation of financial reporting in the United States that
either duplicated or carried forward the recommendations of the Treadway Commission.



Calendar effect

The tendency of stocks to perform differently at different times, including such anomalies as
the January effect, month-of-the-year effect, day-of-the-week effect, and holiday effect.


Clientele effect

The grouping of investors who have a preference that the firm follow a particular financing
policy, such as the amount of leverage it uses.


Unbiased Predictor Image 1

Coinsurance effect

Refers to the fact that the merger of two firms decreases the probability of default on
either firm's debt.


Cumulative-Effect Adjustment

The cumulative, after-tax, prior-year effect of a change in accounting
principle. It is reported as a single line item on the income statement in the year of the
change in accounting principle. The cumulative-effect-type adjustment is the most common accounting
treatment afforded changes in accounting principle.


Cumulative Effect of a Change in Accounting Principle

The change in earnings of previous years
based on the assumption that a newly adopted accounting principle had previously been in use.


Cumulative Effect of Accounting Change

The change in earnings of previous years assuming
that the newly adopted accounting principle had previously been in use.


Dilutive effect

Result of a transaction that decreases earnings per common share.


Domestic International Sales Corporation (DISC)

A U.S. corporation that receives a tax incentive for
export activities.


Effective annual interest rate

An annual measure of the time value of money that fully reflects the effects of
compounding.


effective annual interest rate

Interest rate that is annualized using compound interest.


Effective annual yield

Annualized interest rate on a security computed using compound interest techniques.


Unbiased Predictor Image 2

Effective Annual Yield

Annualized rate of return on a security computed using compound
interest techniques


Effective call price

The strike price in an optional redemption provision plus the accrued interest to the
redemption date.



Effective convexity

The convexity of a bond calculated with cash flows that change with yields.


Effective date

In an interest rate swap, the date the swap begins accruing interest.


Effective duration

The duration calculated using the approximate duration formula for a bond with an
embedded option, reflecting the expected change in the cash flow caused by the option. Measures the
responsiveness of a bond's price taking into account the expected cash flows will change as interest rates
change due to the embedded option.


Effective Exchange Rate

The weighted average of several exchange rates, where the weights are determined by the extent of our trade done with each country.


Effective Interest Rate

The rate of interest actually earned on an investment. It is
calculated as the ratio of the total amount of interest actually
earned for one year divided by the amount of the principal.


Effective margin (EM)

Used with SAT performance measures, the amount equaling the net earned spread, or
margin, of income on the assets in excess of financing costs for a given interest rate and prepayment rate
scenario.


Effective rate

A measure of the time value of money that fully reflects the effects of compounding.


Effective spread

The gross underwriting spread adjusted for the impact of the announcement of the common
stock offering on the firm's share price.


Effective Tax Rate

The total tax provision divided by pretax book income from continuing
operations.


Unbiased Predictor Image 3

effectiveness

a measure of how well an organization’s goals
and objectives are achieved; compares actual output results
to desired results; determination of the successful accomplishment
of an objective



Fisher effect

A theory that nominal interest rates in two or more countries should be equal to the required real
rate of return to investors plus compensation for the expected amount of inflation in each country.


Fisher rate

the rate of return that equates the present values
of the cash flows of all projects being considered; it is the
rate of indifference


Fisher's separation theorem

The firm's choice of investments is separate from its owner's attitudes towards
investments. Also refered to as portfolio separation theorem.


Information-content effect

The rise in the stock price following the dividend signal.


International Bank for Reconstruction and Development - IBRD or World Bank

international Bank for Reconstruction and Development makes loans at nearly conventional terms to countries for projects of high
economic priority.


International Banking Facility (IBF)

international Banking Facility. A branch that an American bank
establishes in the United States to do Eurocurrency business.


International bonds

A collective term that refers to global bonds, Eurobonds, and foreign bonds.


International Depository Receipt (IDR)

A receipt issued by a bank as evidence of ownership of one or more
shares of the underlying stock of a foreign corporation that the bank holds in trust. The advantage of the IDR
structure is that the corporation does not have to comply with all the regulatory issuing requirements of the
foreign country where the stock is to be traded. The U.S. version of the IDR is the American Depository
Receipt (ADR).


International diversification

The attempt to reduce risk by investing in the more than one nation. By
diversifying across nations whose economic cycles are not perfectly correlated, investors can typically reduce
the variability of their returns.


International finance subsidiary

A subsidiary incorporated in the U.S., usually in Delaware, whose sole
purpose was to issue debentures overseas and invest the proceeds in foreign operations, with the interest paid
to foreign bondholders not subject to U.S. withholding tax. The elimination of the corporate withholding tax
has ended the need for this type of subsidiary.


International fund

A mutual fund that can invest only outside the United States.


international fund

A mutual fund that can invest in securities issued anywhere outside of Canada.


International market

Related: See external market.


International Monetary Fund

An organization founded in 1944 to oversee exchange arrangements of
member countries and to lend foreign currency reserves to members with short-term balance of payment
problems.


International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Organization originally established to manage the postwar fixed exchange rate system.


International Monetary Market (IMM)

A division of the CME established in 1972 for trading financial
futures. Related: Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).


International Reserves

See foreign exchange reserves.


London International Financial Futures Exchange (LIFFE)

A London exchange where Eurodollar futures
as well as futures-style options are traded.


London International Financial Futures Exchange (LIFFE)

London exchange where Eurodollar futures as well as futures-style options are traded.


Low price-earnings ratio effect

The tendency of portfolios of stocks with a low price-earnings ratio to
outperform portfolios consisting of stocks with a high price-earnings ratio.


Neglected firm effect

The tendency of firms that are neglected by security analysts to outperform firms that
are the subject of considerable attention.


P/E effect

That portfolios with low P/E stocks have exhibited higher average risk-adjusted returns than high P/E stocks.


Panel on Audit Effectiveness

A special committee of the Public Oversight Board that was created
to perform a comprehensive review and evaluation of the way independent audits of financial
statements of publicly traded companies are performed. The panel found generally that the
quality of audits is fundamentally sound. The panel did recommend the expansion of audit steps
designed to detect fraud.


Policy-Ineffectiveness Proposition

Theory that anticipated policy has no effect on output.


SIMEX (Singapore International Monetary Exchange)

A leading futures and options exchange in Singapore.


Small-firm effect

The tendency of small firms (in terms of total market capitalization) to outperform the
stock market (consisting of both large and small firms).


Synergistic effect

A violation of value-additivity whereby the value of the combination is greater than the
sum of the individual values.


Wealth Effect

The effect on spending of a change in wealth caused by a change in the overall price level.


Weekend effect

The common recurrent low or negative average return from Friday to Monday in the stock market.



 

 

 

 

 

 

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